More than 1 million people have been tested positive of COVID-19. More than fifty thousand have died across the globe as of Friday 3rd March, 2020. Major institutions and banks have cut their forecasts for the global economy. On January 30, the World Health Organization declared Corona virus outbreak a "Global Public Health Emergency". The US overtook China, where the virus originated, in terms of confirmed cases on Thursday, also in terms of deaths on Sunday according to figures collated by Johns Hopkins University. Italy is the hardest-hit country with more than thirteen thousand deaths. Spain also has more than ten thousand causalities with more than nine hundred deaths in just last twenty four hours(Thursday 2nd March , 2020) . In Pakistan, the death toll has reached 35 and total confirmed cases are more than 2400.
Fear spreads faster than the virus. Factories are closed. Roads are blocked. Countries are locked down. India is one of the largest countries to enforce a lock down across its land, restricting its 1.3 billion residents in their homes for three weeks at least. Streets in metropolitans like New York, London, Paris, Milan and Barcelona are empty because of the officials enacting lock downs. Tourist attractions are deserted due to the ground stop of the aviation industry. Holy sites are emptied out because of the fear. The spread of the virus across the globe and the early irresponsible reactions of the world leaders have horrible effects on the global economy, politics and governance.
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| Figure: Biological Warfare |
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| Figure: Wuhan Institute of Virology |
There is a hypothesis that the outbreak was the result of an accident in which the corona virus leaked out from a lab where scientists failed to follow proper decontamination protocol. Rumors thrive on fear and uncertainty, and this pandemic offers both. Within weeks of the pathogen’s appearance, social media lit up with theories that the virus was a biological weapon, either a Chinese one that escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan or an American one inflicted on Wuhan. While these theories are just hoaxes, given that neither the United States nor China has incentive to develop biological weapons. They are difficult to dispel, because military officials on both sides still view with suspicion each other’s motives in building bio-security programs. Moreover , a bio-weapon is not deployed unless the one using it has antibodies to prevent deaths of its own people. No nation is immune to viruses and both the world powers (US and China) are among the most affected of Corona. Loopholes in China’s bio safety regulations only allow the rumors to gain more currency. The lack of trust between the two nations, as evidenced by China’s initial refusal to allow U.S. disease experts to visit Wuhan, is undermining efforts to contain the virus’s global spread.
An unpublished paper authored by an Indian researcher seems to bolster this theory by suggesting that the virus’s protein sequence included elements of HIV. Although the author voluntarily withdrew the paper, the proposed linkage caught the attention of news websites, which claimed that the novel corona virus was developed by Chinese scientists. Adding to the controversy, Tom Cotton, the Republican senator from Arkansas, said that it could not be ruled out that the virus originated in a lab in Wuhan that is used to handle the most dangerous pathogens. Supporters of this theory point to the seemingly overwhelming circumstantial evidence that connects the outbreak to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is the home of world's deadliest viruses and also houses China’s only biosafety level 4 (BSL-4) lab, the highest level of precautions. Many of these accusations may be groundless as mentioned above, but the lab safety is a major concern in China. It also has a history of safety breaches. Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention lab is believed to have caused four suspected SARS cases, including one death, in Beijing in 2004. A similar accident caused 65 lab workers of Lanzhou Veterinary Research Institute to be infected with Brucellosis in December 2019. In January 2020, a renowned Chinese scientist, Li Ning, was sentenced to 12 years in prison for selling experimental animals to local markets.
On the other side, the Chinese government has at least one prominent diplomat in its ranks who is accusing US for this pandemic. On March 12, Lijian Zhao, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, demanded answers from the US government through social media site twitter, “It might be the US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan.” Chinese social media is also filled with conjectures that the virus was developed by the States as a weapon against China. A widely shared conspiracy suggests that American soldiers participating in the 2019 Military World Games in Wuhan shed the virus at the Hunan Seafood Market, and this theory seems ridiculous because no country in this world has the ability to deliver a bio-weapon without infecting its own people without any antibodies and China was the first country to report Corona virus. Apart from China, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former Iranian president also got in on the corona virus conspiracy. In an open letter to the UN secretary-general, he wrote that it was clear that the virus was “produced in laboratories of world hegemonic powers. This allegation is once again baseless as no scientific explanation can be presented for its corroboration.
Use of biological warfare by world powers is not a new idea. During World War II, the United States was the first country to develop biological weapons but these were never used because back then these were counter productive. Biological agents had certain liabilities for battlefield use: they didn’t take effect right away, they could infect one’s own forces, they were sensitive to environmental and meteorological conditions, and they could conceivably contaminate an area for longer than intended. Nonetheless, the United States continued to stockpile and develop biological weapons into the postwar era. However, Matthew Meselson, a biologist at Harvard University, led a successful campaign against biological weapons development starting in the early 1960s. In 1969, the United States got rid of its offensive biological warfare program and played a crucial role in successfully negotiating an international treaty known as the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). The treaty prohibits the development, production, and storage of biological agents and related delivery systems. In explaining the U.S. decision, President Richard Nixon said that “we’ll never use the damn germs, so what good is biological warfare as a deterrent? If somebody uses germs on us, we’ll nuke ’em.”
Unlike the States, China entered late in the race of bio-weapons. The Imperial Japanese Army’s Biowarfare Unit 731 during World War II used germs against the Chinese. As a result, China felt an imperative to build research facilities devoted to “defensive” biological warfare. In August 1951, PM Zhou Enlai set up the Academy of Military Medical Sciences (AMMS) for research on bio-defense. Since China did not possess nuclear weapons until the mid-1960s, it may indeed have explored developing biological weapons as a weapon of last resort or a strategic deterrent similar to nuclear weapons. But by 1982, China had acquired a large invulnerable retaliatory arsenals. Two years later, China acceded to the BWC. The mid-80s saw a shift in China’s national policy towards industrial development. Funding for China’s bio-defense research facilities depleted and they began developing products for civilians rather than military purposes.
Unlike the States, China entered late in the race of bio-weapons. The Imperial Japanese Army’s Biowarfare Unit 731 during World War II used germs against the Chinese. As a result, China felt an imperative to build research facilities devoted to “defensive” biological warfare. In August 1951, PM Zhou Enlai set up the Academy of Military Medical Sciences (AMMS) for research on bio-defense. Since China did not possess nuclear weapons until the mid-1960s, it may indeed have explored developing biological weapons as a weapon of last resort or a strategic deterrent similar to nuclear weapons. But by 1982, China had acquired a large invulnerable retaliatory arsenals. Two years later, China acceded to the BWC. The mid-80s saw a shift in China’s national policy towards industrial development. Funding for China’s bio-defense research facilities depleted and they began developing products for civilians rather than military purposes.
The claim that the novel corona virus is a biological weapon is not only harmful but also scientifically unsupported. Scientists have pointed out that mutations in the virus are “completely consistent with natural evolution resulting in a novel disease. Scientists from multiple countries also have “overwhelmingly” concluded that the novel corona virus originated in wildlife and then transmitted to humans. It is believed that corona virus is zoonotic, which means they jump from animals to humans, Researchers also concluded that this pathogen has an animal origin. Many believe that bats are the host for the virus, although snakes for a time were also suspected. Some researchers also consider pangolins, widely considered a delicacy in China, may be the intermediate host to pass the novel virus to humans. Overall, they are inclined to view the outbreak as a problem of zoonotic infection transmitted from wild animals to humans. While the virus was indeed found in people associated with the wet market (where live animals were sold and slaughtered in China), some of the early cases were in people who had not visited the market, suggesting that this transfer may have occurred elsewhere and this conundrum is the main problem to work on.
The virus has now spread across the world, with social, political, and economic consequences wherever it goes. Identifying its origin would help experts and governments to hone the best countermeasures to stem its spread and prevent such outbreaks in the future. So far, neither the theory that the virus was developed as a biological weapon nor the notion that it escaped a laboratory by accident seems as plausible as the hypothesis that the virus jumped to humans from animals at the wet market. Will all of these scientific findings finally rescind this myth between politicians and on social media? Probably not. Since when has science stopped such political rhetoric! Albeit, it will get more scientists to focus on the much needed matter at hand: trying to control this pandemic together.